Page 1: WORLD POPULATION

All major areas of the world have growing populations now and according to the median variant projections are expected to continue to do so. Japan and Europe are exceptions.

Table 2: Population of World, Major Areas, and Japan, 1750-2050

A. Population size (millions)

Percentage distribution of population among the major areas shows that population growth is expected to be relatively high in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, and lower (or falling) in the other areas.

B. Percentage distribution

A plot of the data in Table 2A gives the following graph.

And here is the same graph again, but with the Y axis expanded so you can see what is happening at the lower end of the graph.

Graph 1A: Population of Selected Major Areas and Japan, 1750-2050

The following graph is plotted from the population figures for the world given in the UN World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision.

Graph 3: World Population, 1950-2050

Plotted using Worldwatch Institute data from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects

The graph shows three variants:

The most recent UN revision of world population prospects (following graph, 1998) shows considerably lower estimates for 2050 world population.

Graph 4: World population size: past estimates and medium-, high- and low fertility variants, 1950-2050 (billions)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, forthcoming.

It seems that as time moves on the 2050 world population estimate is steadily revised downward. Perhaps we are better off believing the lower estimates. There are two major reasons for this:

1. Take another look at Table 1. Do we seriously believe that the many African and Asian countries listed in the table (many with 1998 populations under 50 million) are going to continue to grow at close to their current population growth rates? Do we seriously expect the populations of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, the Yemen, Tanzania, Iraq and so on to double or triple in the coming 50 years? Theoretically possible, perhaps, but practically very unlikely.

2. The estimates are derived from calculations based on population dynamics. As death rates increase (e.g. from AIDS in Africa) or as birth rates decline (for social or environmental reasons), estimates of future populations are revised downwards. This does not, of course (since we have no direct way of knowing the future), account for large-scale natural disasters, food shortages (famines), resource (e.g. water) depletion, wars and other calamities which are likely to take place over the coming 50 years.

These figures are from the recently released 1998 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. This Revision presents population data from 1950 to 2050 for 228 countries and areas of the world, from Pitcairn with 46 persons to China with 1.3 billion. The notes below give a brief outline of the main points of the Revision.

• The mid-1998 world population: 5,901 million.
  
• 4,719 million (80 per cent) in the less developed regions.
  
• 1,182 million (20 per cent) in the more developed regions.
• Asia accounted for 3,585 million, i.e. 61 per cent of the world total.
  
• During the last two years, Africa's population (749 million in 1998) became larger than Europe's (729 million).
  
• The population of Latin America and the Caribbean is estimated at 504 million
  
• The population of Northern America is estimated at 305 million.

• The world population is growing at 1.33 per cent per year between 1995 and 2000
  
• This is significantly less than the peak growth rate of 2.04 per cent in 1965-1970.
  
• It is also less than the rate of 1.46 per cent in 1990-1995.
  
• The annual population increment also declined from its peak of 86 million in 1985-1990 to the current 78 million.
  
• It will further decline gradually to 64 million in 2015-2020, and then sharply to 30 million in 2045-2050.

• It is projected that the annual population growth rate will continue declining from 1.33 per cent in 1995-2000 to 0.34 per cent in 2045-2050.
  
• In 1804 the world passed the 1 billion mark.
  
• It took 123 years to reach 2 billion people in 1927.
  
• Then 33 years to attain 3 billion in 1960.
  
• Then 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974
  
• Then 13 years to attain 5 billion in 1987
  
• And 12 years to reach 6 billion in 1999.
  
• It will take 14 years to reach 7 billion in 2013.
  
• Then 15 years to reach 8 billion in 2028.
  
• And then with the slowing down of population growth, it will take 26 years to reach 9 billion, in 2054.
  
• In the medium variant, the world population would reach 8.9 billion in 2050.

• The annual population growth rate will decrease more slowly, reaching 0.87 per cent per year in 2045-2050.
  
• The low-fertility variant results in a rapid decline of annual rate of population change, to a negative value of -0.23 per cent per year in the middle of 21st century.
  
• The population in 2050 will be 10.7 billion according to the high variant.
  
• It will be 7.3 billion according to the low variant.

• Ninety-seven per cent of the world population increase takes place in the less developed regions.
  
• Every year the population of Asia is increasing by 50 million.
  
• The population of Africa is increasing by 17 million.
  
• The population of Latin America and the Caribbean by nearly 8 million.
  
• Africa has the highest growth rate among all major areas (2.36 per cent).
  
• Middle Africa, Eastern Africa and Western Africa have growth rates of 2.5 per cent and over.
  
• Europe, on the other hand, has the lowest growth rate (0.03 per cent), with a negative rate of -0.2 per cent in Eastern Europe.